Jobs growth by 2017 predicted Silver lining or false dawn?

The UK's employment prospects over the next eight years remain good despite the recession, according to research. The UK Commission for Employment and Skills claims the transport and distribution sector will show the strongest growth, where around 500,000 new jobs are expected to be created.

Growth will be particularly strong in business, computing and financial services where the number of jobs is predicted to increase by 1.3 million by 2017. However, jobs in the utilities sector will continue to fall.

Employment in construction and education, health and social work will also increase, even although public expenditure is likely to be squeezed to repay commitments to saving the banking system.

Manufacturing growth will average just less than 1.5% per year between now and 2017, while the distribution and retailing sector will grow by a predicted 2.5% each year.

These findings in part justify the government's commitments to minimising unnecessary business failures and helping individuals manage through the current recession, with increased resources for training and up-skilling.

But following the failures of RBS and HBOS and the consequent restructurings, industry sources expect at least 30,000 banking jobs to go in 2009 alone, while the EU and OECD claim that the UK economy is the most vulnerable to the current downturn. And all this before transaction and compliance costs of meeting Climate Change Acts requirements are factored in.

So the devil may be in the assumptions of the Commission for Employment and Skills rather than the detail.

See the more details at Working Futures